People over-complicate things.
And politics is one of those things.
It isn’t complicated. It’s about the sum of personal relationships between many people guided by leadership, churned by passion, and basted by endurance. It’s the furthest thing from chess.
It’s more like cooking. Or, at least, good cooking.
You have good ingredients – an incredible candidate, an association that is tied to the community, and support from the community in terms of volunteers/funds.
You have good mixing of those ingredients — leadership, cooperation from top to bottom, coordination between front staff and the kitchen, and a sense of cohesion in political action. A sense of purpose is also a must.
And you need to have a sense of timing. The best prepared steak, with the best breeding for its meat and finest spices, is ruined by an over-attentive chef, cheapening the meat and killing the taste. Flip the meat when needed, but not too much before or it’ll never sear, nor never too late else the meal will burn, making the effort useless.