CalgaryLiberal

Archive for the ‘Alberta’ Category

• Don Braid breaks the news on Ed Stelmach quitting the Premiership job
• Stelmach posts on his blog on why he resigned
• Enlightened Savage enlightens us.

To be totally honest, I’m not surprised.

A deficit budget, the lowest polling numbers in years, and a caucus in full revolt–it’s a recipe for disaster for any premier, and especially so for a premier that already had a tense control over his party. With the Wildrose springing up from the right and major Progressive Conservative players going onto their side (and federal Conservatives like Kenny and Anders), the schisms in the conservative movement in Alberta would put immeasurable pressures on the Progressive Conservatives.

On the other hand, I am quite surprised. The poll numbers for the PCs have just stabilized, the Wildrose seem to have been pegged at about 25% in the polls, and his caucus seemed to show that they were united. The bleeding had stopped and it seemed that problems of 2010–of health care, Cookiegate, and Raj Sherman–seemed to be cooling down. Either way, it’s now a new political game in Alberta.

The parties will need to commission some new polls, and the newspapers are probably scrambling to do so as well. All bets are off, as it were. With Stelmach gone, though, it will probably mean a sizable 10%-20% bump in the polls, and the Wildrose dropping several points to Alberta Liberal territory. That seems obvious.

Now, the interesting parts of the polling will be if the polling companies look to the changes in public support on the basis on which leader is at the head of the Alberta PCs because the next step obviously is a leadership race for the Progressive Conservatives, 1991-styled. Think tossing of Getty as a fringe party called the Alberta Liberals surge, with the PCs picking up Ralph Klein to counter the trend of antipathy towards the Tories. And it worked then–it could work again. To adjust for the current changes in Albertan politics it would be wise to adjust their positioning and relations with Albertans by picking the right leader. Problem being is that the PCs have found themselves in a spot with several strategic challenges:

(1) The Wildrose are pressuring them with competition on donations, membership, right-leaning politicos, and strategists/organizers. The Wildrose already have captured the national media with the likes of the National Post and Reform-linked politicos. They are pulling people away from the PCs and have already pulled away a substantial portion of their political apparatus. To not have a leader that would either (a) fight it or (b) envelop them, would be problematic.

(2) A race with limited profile people excluding one person: Ted Morton. When there is a leadership race Morton will be the guy to beat and he’ll be the target of other leadership candidates. This is good in a way that allows Mr. Morton to showcase himself, show himself as being different from a subset of the PCs, and will, if his organizers do it right, establish him as the anti-Wildrose candidate. If Ted Morton becomes leader it’ll essentially squash the Wildrose.

(3) The moderate PCs, with the above two points, are in a tough bind. They’re going to be facing a party that wants change, and the party will either receive it by shifting rightward with a new leader or the moderate PCs will jump ship. A challenge for those competing for the Premiership is to keep this faction of their party happy while at once avoiding being tied to them or completely alienating them. These PCs will likely jump ship to the Alberta Liberals if Swann makes room for them.

(4) The federal Conservative party seems to be more and more dominated by Wildrose partisans than a year ago. Just looking at a microcosm of this PC vs Wildrose split in the federal Conservatives, of the campus clubs here at the University of Calgary, the young partisans on either sides have been fighting over who represents the federal Conservatives on campus with the Wildrose faction ultimately forming the Conservative club with the backing of the federal Conservatives (likely with the helpful intervention of Anders).

As it currently stands, the PCs are being pulled in every direction, by the Wildrose, by themselves, and by the Alberta Liberals. It seems like Albertan politics in 2011 will definitely be more interesting to watch.

On the other side of the political divide, the Wildrose HQ must be having a fit. This probably took them by completely surprise.

Wildrose leader Danielle Smith will likely be told that she ought to lay low and let the PCs decimate each other in what will likely be a spirited and negative leadership race. I think that this would be the wrong choice for her. Rather, she ought to push herself straight into the limelight and run for the PC’s leadership. She’d sink Morton, and her star power would eclipse others inside the PC party making her a serious contender. Also, the Wildrose have already set up a network of people across the province so gathering the votes and memberships would be easy (and I wouldn’t be surprised if many of the Wildrose membership have memberships in the PCs still, anyways).

She has the people, the money, and the power to take over a fractured Progressive Conservatives.

At least, that’s if Jim Prentice doesn’t run for leadership (now there’s a thought). Enlightened Savage highlights that option, of having a moderate progressive conservative bringing a lot of the middle ground in Albertan politics back inside the PCs. Since he resigned from the federal Conservatives last year he has been politically free to do as he willed, and he could win the premiership. Or, perhaps, someone like him (or someone like him from Edmonton as Enlightened Savage suggests).

And where does this leave the Alberta Liberals? They’ve just put themselves on an election footing with their shadow cabinet shuffle and they seem prepared to stay the course in pushing for their vision. Perhaps with the chaos on the right they’ll be seen as the only party that’s united going into the next election, and that’d be indispensable to capitalize the problemed Progressive Conservatives.

So, another little birdie (there seems to be plenty of them these days) has slipped me the contract between the Alberta Liberal Party and Dave Taylor–the one he signed before running for them as a candidate in 2008. In 2008 Dave Taylor signed a document clearly stating that he would never join another caucus if he quit the Alberta Liberals. In light of him joining the Alberta Party this morning he is in breach of this contract.

The offending line? (The full contract is at the end of the post.)

6. I believe that Members of the Legislative Assembly are the representatives of their electors, and accountable to them. Therefore, if I am elected as a Liberal to be a Member of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta, and thereafter have occasion to sit outside the Liberal caucus for any reason whatsoever, I will not join any other party caucus or enter into an alliance with any other party caucus without first giving up my seat in the Legislative Assembly and submitting to an election or my peers. [Emphasis mine.]

So he has broken this today. And what will happen to him for it? Nothing, to be totally honest. Just like there has been no reaction to his comments made to FFWD earlier this year:

“If I were to make a decision that I thought I would want to run as a member of some other party, then I would wait until the next election or resign and go through a byelection,” he said. “Nobody voted for Dave Taylor as a candidate for another party.”

Alberta Liberals wont want to press the issue because, to be totally honest, how can they hold him accountable? It’s not like they can kick him out of their caucus. Going to court for this would be difficult and draw the public’s attention to party squabbles rather than actual solutions.

What hurts Mr. Taylor, though, is that he has betrayed his principles. Truly, it’s the only thing an opposition MLA has, too. He has promised to people, he has promised to the media, and he has promised to the very party that had him run, to step down and fight a by-election.  It is his duty to fulfill his obligations to his constituents, to his old party, to his new party, and to the people of Alberta to fulfill his duty. To do otherwise would paint him as part of the old establishment of political hacks and opportunists, harming both his image and that of the fledgling Alberta Party.

The tragedy, though, isn’t much to Mr. Taylor for his savaging of his principles. It’s to the Alberta Party. They just lost most, if not all, the idealistic people in their party by bringing in this notorious partisan.  Him not going into a by-election and tossing away his duty spits in the face of the moral code of the Alberta Party has been promoting since at least last year when the Wildrose had their first two converts. If they truly wished to be a champion for change and for making Alberta a better place in its political discourse they’ve gone off in one terrible, terrible direction to do that.

The contract is below:
Dave Taylor’s Candidate Contract with the Alberta Liberals

“As part of his ongoing effort to offer a new politics of hope and transparency to Alberta, Official Opposition Leader David Swann has created a four-minute video that will help Albertans understand who he is and where he’s coming from.

“It’s tough for Albertans to choose leaders unless those leaders are open and honest about their past experiences and present goals,” says Swann. “I hope this video will help Albertans get to know me a little better.”

“Featuring archival footage of Swann’s early life in southern Alberta and new interviews, the video reveals how Swann came to hold mainstream, moderate, small-l liberal values, and why he entered political life.”

So, a little birdie told me who is moving to what portfolio for the Official Opposition in Alberta’s legislature.Judging by the shifts, the ALP is trying to set up their team for the next election. Full list is at the bottom of the post.

With Kevin Taft and Harry Chase opting not to run in the next election, they’re being pushed to the back of the opposition benches with less media-focused portfolios (Taft with aboriginal relations and advanced education, and Chase with children and youth services, tourism, parks, and recreation, and then employment and immigration.)

Curiously, they’ve moved Hugh MacDonald from the Employment portfolio. This is interesting because he is fairly tight with the building trades since he’s “one of their guys”–an ex-boilermaker and welder, that is. While the ties to that subset of the union movement in Alberta is being lessened, the judgement by the caucus is likely to start bridging the gap to other areas of the labour movement. This is a wise move on a few points, especially for the possibility of growth areas in Edmonton to be capitalized on. His personality will likely match up with the Public Safety portfolio more than anything else, to be totally honest, so the switch will probably be good for him.

The shift for Employment to Chase seems odd, but it seems to be the bargaining chip that had him pull away from his current portfolio of Education.

As you probably already know I’m a rather big Darshan Kang fan. I’m a bit sad he isn’t getting a bigger media-focused portfolio and isn’t getting some of the good press I think he could garner and hold for the ALP. Especially considering the power brokering he had done behind the scenes in Calgary’s municipal election (with an emphasis on pushing the airport tunnel debate). Oh well. I look forward to this changing pretty quick after the next election.

And the bigger shifts?

David Swann is shifting gears from Energy to Health and Wellness, spelling a huge change in focus for the Alberta Liberals in the policy areas they’re targeting in the next year and in preparation for election 2012. Few insiders have told me there are some serious debates coming up in the legislature about health care (along with some game changing legislation) so 2011 will likely repeat the level of healthcare focus of 2010. It’s a smart move to reinforce the fact that the Liberals are the healthcare party of Alberta.

The energy portfolio is going to Kent Hehr, one of two king makers in the Calgary election for mayor pushing Nenshi over the top into the mayoralty seat. Considering his growing connections with the Calgary oil establishment–which was shown a little more than a tiny bit in the mayoral election–and his sensible environmental statements he made as Sustainable Resource Development critic and his defense of Alberta’s bears, he seems great to handle the tight-rope of balancing the two and making the Alberta Liberals the consistent fighter for both the economy and for Alberta’s green future.

The selection of Hehr, a guy who received non-stop positive press in Calgary during his race for mayor, will likely solidify the electoral gains made by the Liberals in Calgary in the 2008 election. Taking a look at the make up of the Liberal seats in the legislature, they predominantly come from Calgary now (making Calgary “Ralgary” now rather than Edmonton being “Redmonton”?). I expect some gains electorally in the next election to the Liberals, and to keep the seat that is being dropped by the exiting Chase.

Kent Hehr also wins another big prize–Education. With his tight relations with university students at the University of Calgary (he regularly comes to the young Liberals events), the liberal students are definitely on his side and definitely have a kind ear. With his presence in Calgary with this additional role it means another boon to the growing Liberal bastion in Calgary.

Environment is being kept up at the deputy leader, Laurie Blakemen. The Liberals were hamstrung in Edmonton last election and with the environment being pushed by Ms. Blakemen it seems to be an avenue to be pushed for more votes in Edmonton. My instinct says that this increased prominence of the environment will pay dividends to the Liberal fortunes in what many people traditionally refer to as “Redmonton.”

It seems that the Alberta Liberals are moving onto an election footing. With their debt paid off and their statesmanlike leader, I fully expect a whole bunch of action this year. Expect to hear news on ridings setting themselves up with candidates pretty quick, the Alberta Liberals bringing up their “12 Steps” to clean up government every time the government botches accountability / governance, and quick, nimble media relations.

One thing that’ll hamper the ALP is the loss of their communications guy, Neil Mackie, who Graham Thomson points out was “politically speaking, being pistol whipped, stuffed into in a gunny sack and tossed overboard” when the dumping orders were given. Thomson then proceeds to unload a twenty-pound salvo of pain on Swann’s leadership by printing Rick Miller’s comment on how he only can “hire and fire the staff” but can’t “hire and fire the leader.” It was likely a good thing that Swann was outside of the coutnry or else Miller may have found himself also on the chopping block. From my view on the outside, Mr. Mackie really brought a good message to the media (who seemed very happy with him a majority of the time) when he was given something tangible to work with.

Case in point? The 12 step program to clean up government. That was written about in Macleans, for heavens sake! It was (and is) political gold: now it only needs to be pushed until every person in Alberta has it memorized. Neil Mackie ran with it and pushed it to the far corners of Canada, earning solid press coverage for the Alberta Liberals where previously there was little more than a peep. If the Alberta Liberals are to jump up to the level required of them by the voting public they’ll need to make more principled stands and take more decisions, giving Albertans a strong centrist choice that’ll eclipse the old-fashioned politics of the Tories and the cynical biting partisanship of the Wildrose/NDP.

If Swann can repeat the governance ‘Contract with Alberta’ for the Environment and Education portfolios (he’s already done it with Energy with his program on natural resources) there is no doubt in my mind that the Alberta Liberals will be seen as a serious contender in 2012. If the Alberta Liberals start giving the media their positions and their beliefs they’ll start building traction again. Coupled with the change-up in portfolios this is the perfect time for the Liberals of the province to strike while the iron is hot!

The previous portfolio match ups:

David Swann – Executive Council and Energy

Laurie Blakeman –  Environment, Culture and Community Spirit

Harry Chase – Education, Advanced Education and Technology, Children and Youth Services, Tourism, Parks and Recreation

Kent Hehr – Justice and Attorney General, Solicitor General and Public Security, Sustainable Resource Development

Darshan Kang – Infrastructure, Transportation, Service Alberta, Housing

Bridget Pastoor – Agriculture and Rural Development, Seniors and Community Supports, International and Intergovernmental Relations, Municipal Affairs

Hugh MacDonald –Finance and Enterprise, Treasury Board, Employment and Immigration

Kevin Taft – Health and Wellness, Aboriginal Affairs

And, as promised, the new portfolio match ups: (Red for change)

David Swann – Health and Wellness, Executive Council

Laurie Blakeman – Environment, Sustainable Resource Development, Culture and Community Spirit

Harry Chase – Children and Youth Services, Tourism, Parks, and Recreation, Employment and Immigration

Kent Hehr – Energy, Education

Darshan Kang – Service Alberta, Housing and Urban Affairs, Infrastructure, Transportation

Bridget Pastoor – Seniors and Community Supports, Municipal Affairs, International and Intergovernmental Relations, Agriculture and Rural Development

Hugh MacDonald – Treasury Board, Finance and Enterprise, Justice and Attorney General, Solicitor General and Public Security

Kevin Taft – Aboriginal Relations, Advanced Education and Technology